Unless Mosher signs a document, TOBS isnt needed? No, they simply point out that nobody has established the MWP was warmer. Some use averages of temperature. I think this common sense fact has been used by climate scientist to announce: “Yes there is a pause in surface temp rise but the oceans are still warming, without adding.”. I don’t believe that Germans wanted to introduce a temperature shift, and the discrepancy is too large to explain by just a better accuracy of the new equipment. What has come out of it was a detective story worthy of Sherlock Holmes but whether it is right is a matter of conjecture. The quantitative uncertainty associated with each step in homogeneity adjustments needs to be provided: Time of observation, instrument changes, and urban effects have been recognized as important adjustments that are required to revise temperature trend information in order to produce improved temporal and spatial homogeneity. A) there is a potential Bias when you change TOB Temperature is an intrinsic property. Owngoal coming.. congress calls goddard to testify. I wrote back in July, following your earlier post, that, given the motivated reasoning and desire to show more or less global warming by the opposing sides, adjusting the U.S. records is only likely to create more distrust. One can observe that news corrections almost always in the “warming direction”, but why ? While this is not exactly a TOBS adjustment, I wonder if the BEST algorithm found this instrumentation-induced trend and corrected for it. ===============. and the polar bears are doing great, by the way. That’s not okay. The main concern i see is the very substantial adjustment at many stations relative to the raw data. “That’s about the size of it.”. Well, Im still not happy with that result. we are constructing a consistent record of what was recorded. Max and min are the extreme outliers. Station Data: Reykjavik (64.1 N,21.9 W) Fully informed consent of research participant(s) is one … A couple of thoughts: It has provided me a lot of useful new detail about the “sausage-making” aspects of temperature data handling. Malicious doing need not be shown, merely ignorant doing. In our work we started down this path of investigation but kinda got side tracked. And I don’t have to accept everything they’ve done in order to endorse the parts I like and be critical of the parts I think need work. The BEST team have neither created nor increased the troubles. Why aren’t CRN stations used as the reference for USHCN station adjustments? The model underestimated high values. ” The wikipedia article is clearly a biased discussion of this subject.”. In GST we are looking at a 1 deg temperature change over a hundred years with an error bar the can’t be much less than half a degree at best. A summary of the results included the following: Quarter of an hour of the early afternoon sunshine on a cloudy day could make lot of difference to the days max, not so sure about daily min, never been up that early in the morning. Interesting, but… I know that game all too well. And I doubt this bias changes much with time of observation (in ranges of time-of-day actually used much in practice) on average over the world’s land weather stations. Its the best explanation. bands. The peaks happens when the temperature changes from day to day. Thank you 1sky1! Different observers may assess subjective criteria differently, and cognitive biases (including preconceptions and assumptions) can affect how a subject is assessed. The implication? The differences in trend for LAND ONLY run the gamut depending in where you start from -10% to plus 30%. Speaking of which, I suppose I should produce the same figure comparing BEST trend to GISTEMP land only (250km and 1200km both). Curious, “CaptDallas, thanks for posting a graph of a number of meta-records. Understanding Time of Observation Bias. Guessed? Another example. Boulder has large variations, so the average of theese max readings can change more that 0.8C by changing reading time from morning to afternoon. If the republicans call Goddard, I have already said I would advise the democrats to call Anthony and Peilke. should be ashamed of themselves. Thank you. We predict what the data WOULD HAVE LOOKED LIKE I expected something. moshe, would you prefer ‘that other peoples’ errors were irrelevant’ to ‘that other people were not cheating’? “A current example is Reykjavik, where IMO’s Trausti Johanssen has provided a clear, careful explanation of what adjustments were made for what reasons. They never get used. For some customers I use tmax. So why not take each such station, use the minimum temperature anomalies up until the change, then do a one-time shift to maximum temperature anomalies? Every time I’ve looked for an explanation of something GISS or HadCRUT does, I could find the answer. This is a guest post by Zeke Hausfather. Another example is De Bilt, Netherlands, the home observatory for KNMI. 2. First you take a single station, and use it as a proxy for a much larger, (sometimes huge – see Antarctica and the oceans) area. Yeah, that one bothers me too, AlexS. Very informative. And whether you transcribed what you claimed you saw properly. How was it dealt with in studies? Nobody, but Nobody in Industrial Process Control goes back and alters historical data, they use Real Satistics, based on the process history to read the Current process and React to change. It didn’t, so I’ll keep discussing things in the hopes BEST will eventually live up to its promises. I checked for my self with Boulder for 2014, and must admit there is more than 0.5C between 6 morning and 3 afternoon for max temp, as far as i have done it right. But if the US record is amongst the bEst , it shows how poor other parts of the record are. The problem comes about due to resetting the Max/Min thermometer. we estimate the monthly uncertainity in temperature to be on the order of Note from Anthony: Some readers might suspect the PWS network has exposure and placement problems, like the NOAA network, and they would be right. Therefore, the large ascent rates at one time may overestimate the correction to bias when the priori parameters are well estimated based on the past normal ascent rates. Similarly, when NCDC’s pairwise homogenization algorithm is run without the TOBs adjustment being applied first, the end result is very similar to what you get when you explicitly correct for TOBs, as discussed in Williams et al (2012). Thank you for this great posting and your responses to commenters, even the nitpickers. man we spilled a lot of blood. Hansen said parts of New York would be under water by now, it isn’t but nobody takes any notice. If you took a measurement every second the data would be continuous too, each measurement would be discrete as each second the measurement was taken. Here’s one for Canada I’m impressed, Josh! During a still night, cold air also flows downhill and trees and shrubs can be used to guide / stop it hurting nonhardy plants. Want to work on the problems of getting local scale correct using our approach? There is no fraud. I am not accusing anybody of fraud or mannhandling the data or of using poor statistical methods. The latest Holocenic drop came perilously close to the attractor of glaciation. The chart has about 350 pm stations and 750 am stations and a little over 100 midnight stations. Of course we all know temperature is relative to the humidity in the air and the wind speed. The report I read suggested that due to the nature of most places inland there is a small higher bias and over-reporting of temps. When the mean temperature is used in BESt, CRU, NCDC GISS, etc it obscures a proper interpretation of the causes of trends. Also the changes in TOB are not random from ~1980 and tend to shift to PM which would reduce TOB bias in many cases, especially summer and southern stations as mentioned. If the error bars are larger, then it would be more difficult to say that something was statistically significant and therefore that definition of “pause” would end up extending the length of the pause. A person should be able to understand what was done and why by reading the documentation published along with the results. Almost everything lives IN the sea. But this work kills the false-adjustment/the warming is all in the adjustment arguments. 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